The Strategic Implications of Quantum Computing for Aviation Safety and Human Performance

Aviation safety has progressed largely through the systematic reduction of technical failures and operational risk. Even so, despite remarkable advances in automation, aircraft systems, and flight crew training, the final safety margin in abnormal and emergency situations still rests with human performance under intense time pressure. In the multi-system failure cases I’ve examined, crews are often required to make sense of incomplete or ambiguous information, weigh competing risks, and commit to decisive action in a matter of seconds. These moments highlight a persistent and well-documented constraint rooted in human factors. In this edition of The Flyer I look at how we could potentially deploy quantum computing to alleviate this situation. 

For regulators and industry leaders, the central strategic objective is how to deploy emerging technologies meaningfully to reduce cognitive workload while preserving human authority and accountability. I have been reviewing recent research on Harvard’s advances in quantum computing and believe this is an emerging field that warrants early strategic attention, specifically fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC). While it is not yet operationally deployable, recent research suggests it may eventually address classes of safety and optimization problems that exceed the limits of classical computing. This could present opportunities for our industry, and if we get ahead of the curve, we may become key players in the deployment of such technologies.

To give an idea of what I am referring to: the most consequential aviation incidents often arise from interacting system degradations that unfold nonlinearly. Classical computing architectures, which underpin today’s decision-support and alerting systems, are not well suited to evaluating such combinatorial problem spaces in real time. As in complex system dynamics, second- and third-order effects can unfold all too rapidly and sometimes unexpectedly, resulting in startle and moments of “did you see that?” or “what is it doing now?” As a result, flight crews may face alert saturation, delayed fault isolation, overwhelm, and procedural ambiguity precisely when time margins are smallest. In other words, anything that removes confusion from these situations is a step in the right direction. Clear, accurate decision-making is the goal here.

Recent advances in quantum error correction indicate that scalable quantum systems are moving from theoretical constructs toward experimental feasibility. In 2025, a Harvard-led collaboration with MIT and QuEra Computing demonstrated sustained logical quantum operations in a neutral-atom architecture, validating a pathway toward fault-tolerant computation. While these systems remain confined to laboratory environments, they may potentially establish the technical prerequisites for future applications in safety-critical domains, in my view. 

From a regulatory and strategic industry leadership perspective, the near-term relevance of quantum computing lies perhaps less in cockpit deployment and more in upstream risk reduction. Aircraft design, certification, and safety assessment rely heavily on simulation and modeling, yet these processes are constrained by the limits of classical computation. High-fidelity modeling of turbulence, material degradation, energy storage systems, and complex redundancy interactions remains incomplete, particularly for rare or edge-case conditions. Therein lies the gap that could be filled by the capabilities of quantum computing.

If fault-tolerant quantum computing matures as I anticipate it may, it could enable substantially more exhaustive and physics-accurate simulations during the design and certification phases. I believe this would allow manufacturers and regulators to identify latent failure modes much earlier, strengthen safety margins proactively, and reduce reliance on post-certification operational mitigations. Strategically, this represents a shift from reactive safety management toward deeper, model-based prevention. Quantum computing offers exciting potential here.

In the longer term, quantum-enabled hybrid decision-support systems could influence how in-flight emergencies are managed. My reasoning is, that by rapidly evaluating large fault trees and contingency options, such systems may one day assist crews in isolating root causes and selecting optimal response strategies under severe time constraints. Importantly, this would not replace pilot judgment but could narrow decision spaces and improve the quality of information available during critical phases.

I believe there is real utility in studying these applications for real-time diagnostics and emergency mitigation and how quantum capabilities might be deployed. Today, pilots rely on quick reference handbooks (QRH), checklists, and training, but these tools are static, require heads-down time, and consume valuable seconds locating the correct procedures. Quantum computing’s strength lies in processing massive datasets extremely quickly and running complex simulations in seconds, such as diagnosing all available sensor data on the flight deck, modeling system status, and determining optimal courses of action.

The system's speed and analytical power would be sufficient to rapidly detect and isolate the incipient failure patterns within complex systems, or to identify and flag unreliable sensors or sub-systems in real-time.

Consequently, it could immediately present the Flight Deck Crew with a synthesized diagnostic assessment and offer a prioritized list of prescribed options leading to the best possible operational outcomes and save lives. Additionally, Quantum algorithms like optimization and machine learning are theoretically ideal for rapidly sifting through the enormous state space of a complex aircraft system even in an emergency to find subtle, developing faults before they become catastrophic. The system could probabilistically calculate and recommend the optimal sequence of actions based on the current situation. However, the final decision and execution of the procedure would remain under the ultimate authority of the flight crew.

The benefits could be rather profound, as such systems could analyze thousands even millions of data points simultaneously and instantly generate tailored response options for the flight crew, rather than losing valuable time flipping through physical pages. It could even take into account the inputs from a real time live evolving situation. This capability could be integrated with HUD displays or even AI-enabled wearables and glasses, providing visual and auditory prompts. Airbus and Boeing could begin training these systems now using simulated data on platforms such as Google’s or IBM’s quantum infrastructures. 

This will likely also require very fast and reliable internet connectivity, and options like Starlink may help in that regard. Traditional satcom systems such as Inmarsat and Viasat typically provide 20–50 Mbps downlink with latency of 600 milliseconds to over one second. Higher performance would be required for real-time quantum diagnostics in emergencies. Starlink-equipped aircraft are already achieving 100–350 Mbps with round-trip latency as low as 20–50 milliseconds or even sometimes sub-20 milliseconds over land. Airlines including Hawaiian, Delta, United, Qatar, Air France, and Aer Lingus are rolling this out fleet-wide between 2025 and 2026, and by 2027 most long-haul and many regional aircraft are expected to be equipped.

For a cloud-based quantum tool, 50 ms latency may just be usable in emergency scenarios. Bandwidth is sufficient to stream live sensor telemetry and receive detailed voice or AR prompts. Satellite handoffs are now seamless, even over oceans. Once quantum services are available in Google’s or IBM’s cloud- or potentially in a dedicated aviation quantum cloud, they may prove fit for purpose or at least be adopted so. Hardware-wise, we are almost there; the connectivity bottleneck is rapidly disappearing. In fact, low-latency internet connectivity onboard makes real-time quantum diagnostics for emergencies increasingly feasible, including instant pilot prompts.

Converging opportunities. Harvard has now demonstrated a “fault tolerant” system using 448 atomic quantum bits manipulated with an complex sequence of techniques to detect and correct errors. Starlink has reduced in-flight latency below 50 milliseconds. And Airlines are already installing the infrastructure. The early foundations for quantum applications in aviation may be approaching the near horizon. It will take time, of course, for prototyping and regulatory certifications, and companies such as Google, IBM, Boeing, and Airbus may begin testing, first in simulators, then in cockpits, perhaps by around 2035 in estimation.

Who might develop this in partnership with our industry? Google is a potential candidate, given its ability to offer end-to-end capability. It has a deep quantum program, Sycamore, Willow, and rapid progress in error correction, Gemini AI that could be adapted for cockpit applications, Google Cloud as a default backend for much Starlink enterprise traffic, and existing partnerships with Airbus and Boeing in quantum chemistry and optimization.

Quantum computers are currently quite unstable, their basic building blocks, called qubits, are very fragile and prone to making mistakes like flipping from a 0 to a 1 randomly. Therefore, the rapid progress in error correction means scientists are successfully developing methods to fix these mistakes as they happen. Instead of relying on a single, faulty qubit, they use many physical qubits together to create one logical qubit that is much more stable and reliable. This work is essential because it is the only way to build the giant, complex, error-free quantum computers needed to solve truly hard problems such as the ones we are talking about in this article.

A possible scenario stack for the 2035–2050 timeframe could look like this, a pilot activates Emergency Assist, which triggers the telemetry streams over Starlink, and then the data is rapidly processed in Google Cloud, and then the computation runs on a fault-tolerant quantum platform. Then a Gemini/quantum hybrid returns voice and AR guidance in under one second tot he Flight Crews. Similar architectures could also emerge with IBM for example with with Airbus, Microsoft Azure, or AWS. Google is indeed making rapid progress and has the qubits, AI, cloud scale, and airline relationships to support such development.

Of course, prevention is better than cure, and these capabilities could be applied across the entire value chain, including engineering and design. Having studied workflows during the Qantas A380 engine failure incident, much of the crew’s time was spent diagnosing system status, determining what was functioning and what was not. before execution of the problem solutions. In such cases, accurate and timely diagnostic information and response options are extremely valuable when time is critical. Anything that reduces cognitive burden allows pilots to manage the situation more safely and effectively and represents a meaningful advancement in safety. It could also tell crew for example in the diagnostic scenario faced by folks like Capt. Sully_Sullenberger and his crew with there actions during the emergency of US Airways Flight 1549 on January 15, 2009. This is because it would have quickly given the date response, indicating they wouldn’t return to La Guardia or Teterboro Airport, as the pilot instinctively determined based on his extensive experience and intuition. I am not suggesting in any way that this should replace the human centered and training approaches, but rather provide a augmented tool for aiding them with excellent decision making capabilities in any given situation. 

If we look elsewhere we see similar advances. Research efforts such as NASA’s Quantum Artificial Intelligence Laboratory are already exploring hybrid quantum-classical approaches for planning, scheduling, and optimization in aerospace contexts. These initiatives remain experimental but provide insight into how quantum capabilities may eventually integrate with human-centered design principles and regulatory frameworks.

For our industry leaders, the strategic question is one of timing and posture, if you will. Quantum computing may not be considered by many as an immediate certification or operational concern, but it is nearing a stage where early engagement can shape standards, research priorities, and integration pathways. I recommend we keep a close eye on it to ensure we do not miss the opportunities it represents. Organizations that begin assessing quantum-enabled safety analysis, workforce literacy, and governance models now will be better positioned to evaluate claims, manage risk, and avoid reactive adoption later. Our industry must look toward the 2035 horizon and beyond, as AI, AR, VR, and quantum computing technologies may converge into truly transformative propositions for aviation—whether alongside or integrated into existing business models. Also the security dimension needs to be factored in, as the banking industry are already concerned about the fact that these things are so fast they may be able to beat encryption in minutes, and there may be some unforeseen risks of these very powerful capabilities being deployed by any bad actors. 

Aviation safety history shows us that the most effective advances, such as Crew Resource Management, fly-by-wire systems, and datalink communications, have reduced human workload rather than increased it. Just look at the older cockpit videos and you can see the difference in the hands on legacy systems versus today's glass cockpits - it is truly awesome Fault-tolerant quantum computing, if it reaches maturity, aligns with this tradition of aviation advancement by offering the potential to reduce cognitive overload at both design and operational levels. 

For regulators and leaders across our industries, the appropriate stance, in my view, is one of informed preparedness and balanced adoption. Humans must remain central to the design and implementation phases, with end users and all stakeholders intimately involved in optimization across design, production, development, and deployment. In rare emergency scenarios, these technologies should serve as tools, to aid flight crews and not replace their decision making command. Like all tools, they can be used for good or harm. But one thing is clear, quantum computing represents a long-horizon technology with credible implications for safety assurance, certification fidelity, and human performance.

Monitoring its development, supporting targeted research, and considering future regulatory touchpoints now will help ensure that, if and when the technology becomes viable for deployment in the above context, that it strengthens aviation safety without compromising human authority or systemic trust. To sum up my argument here is that quantum computing could excel at handling the combinatorial explosion of nonlinear system interactions in aircraft failures during aircraft emergencies. Classical systems can struggle with real-time evaluation of massive fault trees or sensor data ambiguities, leading to alert saturation and delayed diagnosis. The idea I am advocating for is the use case potential of Quantum algorithms for optimization, simulation, or probabilistic reasoning and that they are theoretically suited to this purpose, even potentially offering rapid, tailored diagnostics and prioritized actions while keeping pilots in command. I hope you found this insightful. 

Best regards,

Noel Cox

Principal Aviation Consultant, avcox